England vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 49.9%draw 2.8%47.3% IrelandIreland 73.5%draw 2.8%23.7% EnglandEngland 36.8%draw 2.7%60.5% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Ireland and 27 England, with the middle run at 1 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why England are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Ireland.
England 1763, Ireland 1884 — 121 points, favouring Ireland
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England81–8–55Ireland144 meetings, 1875 to 2026 · England by 3.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Ireland by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | England 21–42 Ireland | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-02-01 | Ireland 27–22 England | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-03-09 | England 23–22 Ireland | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-08-19 | Ireland 29–10 England | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-03-18 | Ireland 29–16 England | — | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 144. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.