England vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 54.7%draw 2.8%42.5% IrelandIreland 66.0%draw 2.8%31.2% EnglandEngland 42.8%draw 2.8%54.4% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v Ireland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Ireland and 28 England, half of them between 6 Ireland and 14 England, with the middle run at 1 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Ireland.
England 2235, Ireland 2351 — 116 points, favouring Ireland
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England81–8–55Ireland144 meetings, 1875 to 2026 · England by 3.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Ireland by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | England 21–42 Ireland | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-02-01 | Ireland 27–22 England | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-03-09 | England 23–22 Ireland | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-08-19 | Ireland 29–10 England | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-03-18 | Ireland 29–16 England | — | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 144. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.