England vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 90.6%draw 1.2%8.2% ItalyItaly 12.1%draw 1.2%86.7% EnglandEngland 89.8%draw 1.2%9.0% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 England and 47 England, with the middle run at 18 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-11 on a tight afternoon and 40-22 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Italy.
England 1763, Italy 1367 — 396 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England32–0–1Italy33 meetings, 1991 to 2026 · England by 26.1 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · England by 23.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Italy 23–18 England | Six Nations Championship | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2025-03-09 | England 47–24 Italy | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-02-03 | Italy 24–27 England | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2023-02-12 | England 31–14 Italy | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-02-13 | Italy 0–33 England | — | Stadio Olimpico |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 33. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.