England vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 94.4%draw 1.1%4.5% ItalyItaly 14.7%draw 1.1%84.2% EnglandEngland 91.1%draw 1.1%7.8% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 England and 51 England, half of them between 8 England and 36 England, with the middle run at 20 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-12 on a tight afternoon and 43-23 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Italy.
England 2235, Italy 1827 — 409 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England32–1–1Italy34 meetings, 1986 to 2026 · England by 25.4 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · England by 23.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Italy 23–18 England | Six Nations Championship | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2025-03-09 | England 47–24 Italy | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-02-03 | Italy 24–27 England | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2023-02-12 | England 31–14 Italy | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-02-13 | Italy 0–33 England | — | Stadio Olimpico |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 34. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.