England vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 28.9%draw 2.1%69.0% New ZealandNew Zealand 83.8%draw 2.1%14.1% EnglandEngland 20.3%draw 2.1%77.6% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 New Zealand and 16 England, half of them between 15 New Zealand and 3 England, with the middle run at 5 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why England are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
England 2235, New Zealand 2476 — 241 points, favouring New Zealand
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England9–2–37New Zealand48 meetings, 1905 to 2025 · New Zealand by 8.5 on average
Last 10: 2–1–7 · New Zealand by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | England 33–19 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-11-02 | England 22–24 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | New Zealand 24–17 England | — | Eden Park |
| 2024-07-06 | New Zealand 16–15 England | — | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2022-11-19 | England 25–25 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 48. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.