England vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 27.0%draw 1.8%71.2% New ZealandNew Zealand 72.1%draw 1.9%26.0% EnglandEngland 29.2%draw 1.9%68.9% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 New Zealand and 16 England, with the middle run at 5 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why England are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours New Zealand.
England 1763, New Zealand 2045 — 282 points, favouring New Zealand
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England9–2–36New Zealand47 meetings, 1905 to 2025 · New Zealand by 8.4 on average
Last 10: 2–1–7 · New Zealand by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | England 33–19 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-11-02 | England 22–24 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | New Zealand 24–17 England | — | Eden Park |
| 2024-07-06 | New Zealand 16–15 England | — | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2022-11-19 | England 25–25 New Zealand | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 47. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.