England vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 96.2%2.8% SamoaSamoa 5.8%93.2% EnglandEngland 94.9%4.1% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 England and 53 England, half of them between 9 England and 38 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
England 2235, Samoa 1512 — 724 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England9–0–0Samoa9 meetings, 1995 to 2023 · England by 19.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-07 | England 18–17 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2017-11-25 | England 48–14 Samoa | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2014-11-22 | England 28–9 Samoa | — | Twickenham |
| 2010-11-20 | England 26–13 Samoa | — | Twickenham |
| 2007-09-22 | England 44–22 Samoa | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.