England vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 96.6%2.4% USAUSA 6.5%92.5% EnglandEngland 94.6%4.4% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 England and 51 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours USA.
England 1763, USA 1088 — 676 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England6–0–0USA6 meetings, 1987 to 2025 · England by 26.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-20 | USA 5–40 England | — | Los Angeles |
| 2021-07-04 | England 43–29 USA | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2019-09-26 | England 45–7 USA | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2007-09-08 | England 28–10 USA | Rugby World Cup | Stade Bollaert-Delelis(neutral) |
| 1991-10-11 | England 37–9 USA | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.