England vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 97.3%1.7% USAUSA 5.2%93.8% EnglandEngland 95.6%3.4% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 England and 54 England, half of them between 9 England and 39 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps USA.
England 2235, USA 1537 — 698 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England10–0–0USA10 meetings, 1977 to 2025 · England by 37.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-20 | USA 5–40 England | — | Los Angeles |
| 2021-07-04 | England 43–29 USA | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2019-09-26 | England 45–7 USA | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2007-09-08 | England 28–10 USA | Rugby World Cup | Stade Bollaert-Delelis(neutral) |
| 2001-06-16 | USA 19–48 England | — | Matthew J. Boxer Stadium, Balboa Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.