England vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 88.5%draw 1.5%10.0% WalesWales 24.9%draw 1.5%73.6% EnglandEngland 81.1%draw 1.5%17.4% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 England, with the middle run at 13 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Wales.
England 1763, Wales 1425 — 338 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England72–12–60Wales144 meetings, 1881 to 2026 · England by 1.9 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · England by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | England 48–7 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-03-15 | Wales 14–68 England | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-02-10 | England 16–14 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-08-12 | England 19–17 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-08-05 | Wales 20–9 England | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 144. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.