England vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 89.1%draw 1.4%9.5% WalesWales 22.2%draw 1.3%76.5% EnglandEngland 83.1%draw 1.3%15.6% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 43 England, half of them between 4 England and 27 England, with the middle run at 14 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Wales.
England 2235, Wales 1868 — 367 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England71–12–61Wales144 meetings, 1881 to 2026 · England by 1.9 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · England by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | England 48–7 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-03-15 | Wales 14–68 England | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-02-10 | England 16–14 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-08-12 | England 19–17 Wales | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-08-05 | Wales 20–9 England | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 144. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.