Exeter Chiefs vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Exeter Chiefs 88.2%draw 2.5%9.3% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 23.3%draw 2.5%74.2% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 13 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Exeter Chiefs, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Exeter Chiefs 1754, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 580 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs19–0–4Newcastle Falcons23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 15.7 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Exeter Chiefs by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle Falcons 14–38 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-10-04 | Exeter Chiefs 38–15 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Exeter Chiefs 17–15 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-10-18 | Newcastle Falcons 24–18 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-03-23 | Exeter Chiefs 25–16 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.