Exeter Chiefs vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Exeter Chiefs 85.4%draw 2.5%12.1% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 22.9%draw 2.5%74.6% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 81.1%draw 2.5%16.4% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Exeter Chiefs v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Exeter Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 37 Exeter Chiefs, half of them between 4 Exeter Chiefs and 25 Exeter Chiefs, with the middle run at 12 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Exeter Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Exeter Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Exeter Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Exeter Chiefs 1716, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 676 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Exeter Chiefs20–0–4Newcastle Falcons24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 15.3 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Exeter Chiefs by 8.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Exeter Chiefs 34–28 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle Falcons 14–38 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-10-04 | Exeter Chiefs 38–15 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Exeter Chiefs 17–15 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-10-18 | Newcastle Falcons 24–18 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.