Fiji vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 10.0%89.0% IrelandIreland 94.9%4.1% FijiFiji 6.8%92.2% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Ireland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 40 Ireland and level, half of them between 27 Ireland and 4 Ireland, with the middle run at 13 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Ireland.
Fiji 1841, Ireland 2351 — 510 points, favouring Ireland
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–8Ireland8 meetings, 1976 to 2024 · Ireland by 22.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Ireland 52–17 Fiji | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-11-12 | Ireland 35–17 Fiji | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Ireland 23–20 Fiji | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2009-11-21 | Ireland 41–6 Fiji | — | Royal Dublin Society |
| 2002-11-17 | Ireland 64–17 Fiji | — | Lansdowne Road |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.