Fiji vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 8.1%90.9% IrelandIreland 93.9%5.1% FijiFiji 6.5%92.5% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Ireland and 1 Ireland, with the middle run at 10 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Ireland.
Fiji 1412, Ireland 1884 — 473 points, favouring Ireland
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–3Ireland3 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Ireland by 18.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Ireland 52–17 Fiji | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-11-12 | Ireland 35–17 Fiji | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Ireland 23–20 Fiji | — | Aviva Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.