Fiji vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 54.5%draw 3.0%42.5% ItalyItaly 64.2%draw 3.0%32.8% FijiFiji 43.7%draw 3.0%53.3% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Italy and 30 Fiji, half of them between 5 Italy and 15 Fiji, with the middle run at 1 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Italy.
Fiji 1841, Italy 1827 — 15 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji6–0–6Italy12 meetings, 1980 to 2017 · Italy by 0.6 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Italy by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-11-11 | Italy 19–10 Fiji | — | Stadio Angelo Massimino |
| 2017-06-17 | Fiji 22–19 Italy | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2014-06-07 | Fiji 25–14 Italy | — | ANZ Stadium |
| 2013-11-16 | Italy 37–31 Fiji | — | Stadio Giovanni Zini |
| 2010-11-27 | Italy 24–16 Fiji | — | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.