Fiji vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 67.7%draw 2.9%29.4% ItalyItaly 51.1%draw 3.0%45.9% FijiFiji 58.0%draw 3.0%39.0% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Italy and 29 Fiji, with the middle run at 6 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Italy.
Fiji 1412, Italy 1367 — 45 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji1–0–2Italy3 meetings, 1987 to 2017 · Italy by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-11-11 | Italy 19–10 Fiji | — | Stadio Angelo Massimino |
| 2017-06-17 | Fiji 22–19 Italy | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 1987-05-31 | Fiji 15–18 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Carisbrook(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.