Fiji vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 4.9%94.1% New ZealandNew Zealand 93.7%5.3% FijiFiji 5.1%93.9% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 49 New Zealand and 1 New Zealand, with the middle run at 19 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-11 on a tight afternoon and 42-23 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours New Zealand.
Fiji 1412, New Zealand 2045 — 634 points, favouring New Zealand
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–4New Zealand4 meetings, 1987 to 2024 · New Zealand by 46.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | Fiji 5–47 New Zealand | — | Snapdragon Stadium (neutral) |
| 2021-07-17 | New Zealand 60–13 Fiji | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2021-07-10 | New Zealand 57–23 Fiji | — | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 1987-05-27 | New Zealand 74–13 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.