Fiji vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 6.4%92.6% New ZealandNew Zealand 96.5%2.5% FijiFiji 4.3%94.7% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 51 New Zealand and 1 New Zealand, half of them between 34 New Zealand and 7 New Zealand, with the middle run at 18 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-14 on a tight afternoon and 44-26 on an open one.
Why Fiji are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Fiji 1841, New Zealand 2476 — 635 points, favouring New Zealand
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji0–0–13New Zealand13 meetings, 1968 to 2024 · New Zealand by 43.6 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · New Zealand by 51.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | Fiji 5–47 New Zealand | — | Snapdragon Stadium (neutral) |
| 2021-07-17 | New Zealand 60–13 Fiji | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2021-07-10 | New Zealand 57–23 Fiji | — | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2011-07-22 | New Zealand 60–14 Fiji | — | Carisbrook |
| 2005-06-10 | New Zealand 91–0 Fiji | — | North Harbour Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.