Fiji vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 87.0%draw 1.6%11.4% SamoaSamoa 24.0%draw 1.6%74.4% FijiFiji 81.0%draw 1.6%17.4% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Samoa and 40 Fiji, half of them between 3 Fiji and 26 Fiji, with the middle run at 12 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Fiji 1841, Samoa 1512 — 329 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji36–3–21Samoa60 meetings, 1924 to 2025 · Fiji by 3.6 on average
Last 10: 8–1–1 · Fiji by 10.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | Samoa 15–29 Fiji | — | Rotorua International Stadium(neutral) |
| 2024-08-23 | Fiji 42–16 Samoa | — | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2023-07-29 | Samoa 19–33 Fiji | — | Apia Park |
| 2022-07-16 | Fiji 20–23 Samoa | — | Churchill Park |
| 2019-08-10 | Fiji 10–3 Samoa | — | ANZ Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 60. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.