Fiji vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 88.7%draw 1.7%9.6% USAUSA 23.8%draw 1.7%74.5% FijiFiji 82.3%draw 1.7%16.0% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 43 Fiji, half of them between 5 Fiji and 29 Fiji, with the middle run at 14 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps USA.
Fiji 1841, USA 1537 — 304 points, favouring Fiji
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji6–0–1USA7 meetings, 1998 to 2024 · Fiji by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | Fiji 22–3 USA | — | Tokyo(neutral) |
| 2014-11-21 | Fiji 20–14 USA | — | Stade de la Rabine(neutral) |
| 2013-06-19 | Fiji 35–10 USA | — | Nagoya Municipal Mizuho Park Rugby Ground(neutral) |
| 2003-10-15 | USA 18–19 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium(neutral) |
| 2000-06-30 | Fiji 37–21 USA | — | Apia Park(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.