Fiji vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Fiji 62.0%draw 3.0%35.0% WalesWales 64.6%draw 3.0%32.4% FijiFiji 42.4%draw 3.0%54.6% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Wales and 20 Fiji, with the middle run at 3 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Fiji, negative favours Wales.
Fiji 1412, Wales 1425 — 13 points, favouring Wales
Fiji are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji2–0–6Wales8 meetings, 2007 to 2026 · Wales by 14.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Fiji 24–39 Wales | Nations Championship | Cardiff City Stadium |
| 2024-11-10 | Wales 19–24 Fiji | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2023-09-10 | Wales 32–26 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2021-11-14 | Wales 38–23 Fiji | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2019-10-09 | Wales 29–17 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.