Fiji vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Fiji 50.0%draw 3.0%47.0% WalesWales 70.6%draw 3.0%26.4% FijiFiji 38.0%draw 3.0%59.0% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Fiji v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Fiji wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Wales and 21 Fiji, half of them between 7 Wales and 10 Fiji, with the middle run at 1 Fiji.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Fiji are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Fiji winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Fiji, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Fiji 1841, Wales 1868 — 27 points, favouring Wales
Fiji are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Fiji2–1–15Wales18 meetings, 1964 to 2026 · Wales by 14.1 on average
Last 10: 2–1–7 · Wales by 11.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Fiji 24–39 Wales | Nations Championship | Cardiff City Stadium |
| 2024-11-10 | Wales 19–24 Fiji | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2023-09-10 | Wales 32–26 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2021-11-14 | Wales 38–23 Fiji | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2019-10-09 | Wales 29–17 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.