France vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 63.4%draw 3.0%33.6% IrelandIreland 60.9%draw 2.9%36.2% FranceFrance 50.2%draw 2.9%46.9% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Ireland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Ireland and 33 France, half of them between 3 Ireland and 18 France, with the middle run at 5 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Ireland.
France 2301, Ireland 2351 — 50 points, favouring Ireland
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France62–7–37Ireland106 meetings, 1909 to 2026 · France by 3.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Ireland by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | France 36–14 Ireland | — | Stade de France |
| 2025-03-08 | Ireland 27–42 France | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-02-02 | France 17–38 Ireland | — | Orange Velodrome |
| 2023-02-11 | Ireland 32–19 France | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-02-12 | France 30–24 Ireland | — | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 106. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.