France vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 59.1%draw 3.0%37.9% IrelandIreland 67.5%draw 3.0%29.5% FranceFrance 44.1%draw 3.0%52.9% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Ireland and 30 France, with the middle run at 3 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours Ireland.
France 1842, Ireland 1884 — 42 points, favouring Ireland
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France61–7–37Ireland105 meetings, 1909 to 2026 · France by 3.9 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Ireland by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | France 36–14 Ireland | — | Stade de France |
| 2025-03-08 | Ireland 27–42 France | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-02-02 | France 17–38 Ireland | — | Orange Velodrome |
| 2023-02-11 | Ireland 32–19 France | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-02-12 | France 30–24 Ireland | — | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 105. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.