France vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 94.7%4.3% ItalyItaly 10.8%88.2% FranceFrance 91.7%7.3% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 France and 51 France, half of them between 8 France and 37 France, with the middle run at 20 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-23 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Italy.
France 2301, Italy 1827 — 475 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France76–2–4Italy82 meetings, 1935 to 2026 · France by 18.3 on average
Last 10: 9–1–0 · France by 27.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | France 33–8 Italy | — | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2025-02-23 | Italy 24–73 France | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2024-02-25 | France 13–13 Italy | — | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2023-10-06 | France 60–7 Italy | — | Groupama Stadium |
| 2023-02-05 | Italy 24–29 France | — | Stadio Olimpico |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 82. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.