France vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 91.8%7.2% ItalyItaly 11.6%87.4% FranceFrance 89.7%9.3% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 France and 49 France, with the middle run at 20 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-10 on a tight afternoon and 41-21 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours Italy.
France 1842, Italy 1367 — 475 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France47–1–3Italy51 meetings, 1937 to 2026 · France by 20.3 on average
Last 10: 9–1–0 · France by 27.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | France 33–8 Italy | — | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2025-02-23 | Italy 24–73 France | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2024-02-25 | France 13–13 Italy | — | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2023-10-06 | France 60–7 Italy | — | Groupama Stadium |
| 2023-02-05 | Italy 24–29 France | — | Stadio Olimpico |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 51. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.