France vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 29.6%draw 2.3%68.1% New ZealandNew Zealand 75.3%draw 2.3%22.4% FranceFrance 25.9%draw 2.3%71.8% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 New Zealand and 12 France, with the middle run at 4 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why France are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours New Zealand.
France 1842, New Zealand 2045 — 203 points, favouring New Zealand
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France15–1–52New Zealand68 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · New Zealand by 11.9 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · New Zealand by 10.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | New Zealand 34–32 France | Nations Championship | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-07-19 | New Zealand 29–19 France | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-07-12 | New Zealand 43–17 France | — | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-07-05 | New Zealand 31–27 France | — | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-11-16 | France 30–29 New Zealand | — | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 68. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.