France vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 38.2%draw 2.5%59.3% New ZealandNew Zealand 82.1%draw 2.5%15.4% FranceFrance 26.6%draw 2.5%70.9% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 New Zealand and 15 France, half of them between 14 New Zealand and 5 France, with the middle run at 3 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why France are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
France 2301, New Zealand 2476 — 175 points, favouring New Zealand
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France15–1–53New Zealand69 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · New Zealand by 11.8 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · New Zealand by 10.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | New Zealand 34–32 France | Nations Championship | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-07-19 | New Zealand 29–19 France | — | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-07-12 | New Zealand 43–17 France | — | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-07-05 | New Zealand 31–27 France | — | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-11-16 | France 30–29 New Zealand | — | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 69. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.