France vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 96.9%2.1% SamoaSamoa 4.6%94.4% FranceFrance 95.7%3.3% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 France and 53 France, half of them between 8 France and 38 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
France 2301, Samoa 1512 — 789 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France4–0–0Samoa4 meetings, 1999 to 2016 · France by 26.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-12 | France 52–8 Samoa | — | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2012-11-24 | France 22–14 Samoa | — | Stade de France |
| 2009-11-21 | France 43–5 Samoa | — | Stade de France |
| 1999-06-12 | Samoa 22–39 France | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.