France vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 96.0%3.0% USAUSA 7.9%91.1% FranceFrance 93.6%5.4% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 France and 52 France, half of them between 9 France and 38 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps USA.
France 2301, USA 1537 — 764 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France7–0–3USA10 meetings, 1920 to 2024 · France by 8.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | France 17–36 USA | — | Chambery(neutral) |
| 2019-10-02 | France 33–9 USA | Rugby World Cup | Best Denki Stadium |
| 2004-07-03 | USA 31–39 France | — | Rentschler Stadium |
| 2003-10-31 | France 41–14 USA | Rugby World Cup | WIN Stadium(neutral) |
| 1991-07-20 | USA 3–10 France | — | — |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.