France vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 92.4%6.6% WalesWales 22.8%76.2% FranceFrance 84.6%14.4% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for France v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 France and 44 France, half of them between 5 France and 30 France, with the middle run at 15 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-25 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Wales.
France 2301, Wales 1868 — 433 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France53–3–52Wales108 meetings, 1908 to 2026 · France by 0.8 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · France by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Wales 12–54 France | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-01-31 | France 43–0 Wales | — | Stade de France |
| 2024-03-10 | Wales 24–45 France | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2023-03-18 | France 41–28 Wales | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-03-11 | Wales 9–13 France | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 108. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.