France vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
France 86.4%draw 1.1%12.5% WalesWales 19.8%79.2% FranceFrance 82.9%16.1% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Wales and 43 France, with the middle run at 14 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours France, negative favours Wales.
France 1842, Wales 1425 — 417 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France52–3–51Wales106 meetings, 1908 to 2026 · France by 0.8 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · France by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Wales 12–54 France | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-01-31 | France 43–0 Wales | — | Stade de France |
| 2024-03-10 | Wales 24–45 France | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2023-03-18 | France 41–28 Wales | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-03-11 | Wales 9–13 France | — | Principality Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 106. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.