France vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
France 97.7%1.3% ZimbabweZimbabwe 3.8%95.2% FranceFrance 96.5%2.5% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for France v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are France wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 France and 56 France, half of them between 9 France and 39 France, with the middle run at 21 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 91 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 49-28 on an open one.
Why France are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of France winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps France, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
France 2301, Zimbabwe 1293 — 1009 points, favouring France
France are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
France2–0–0Zimbabwe2 meetings, 1987 to 1992 · France by 39.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992-01-02 | Zimbabwe 16–37 France | — | — |
| 1987-06-02 | France 70–12 Zimbabwe | Rugby World Cup | Eden Park(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.