Georgia vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 6.6%92.4% IrelandIreland 93.1%5.9% GeorgiaGeorgia 6.2%92.8% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 42 Ireland and 1 Ireland, with the middle run at 14 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Ireland.
Georgia 1215, Ireland 1884 — 669 points, favouring Ireland
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia0–0–2Ireland2 meetings, 2007 to 2025 · Ireland by 16.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Georgia 5–34 Ireland | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2007-09-15 | Ireland 14–10 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.