Georgia vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 12.2%86.8% IrelandIreland 95.1%3.9% GeorgiaGeorgia 6.4%92.6% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 44 Ireland and 2 Georgia, half of them between 28 Ireland and 4 Ireland, with the middle run at 14 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Ireland.
Georgia 1899, Ireland 2351 — 452 points, favouring Ireland
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia0–0–6Ireland6 meetings, 1998 to 2025 · Ireland by 34.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Georgia 5–34 Ireland | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2020-11-29 | Ireland 23–10 Georgia | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2014-11-16 | Ireland 49–7 Georgia | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2007-09-15 | Ireland 14–10 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas(neutral) |
| 2002-09-28 | Ireland 63–14 Georgia | — | Lansdowne Road |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.