Georgia vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 48.3%draw 2.6%49.1% ItalyItaly 73.8%draw 2.6%23.6% GeorgiaGeorgia 39.4%draw 2.6%58.0% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Italy and 17 Georgia, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Italy.
Georgia 1215, Italy 1367 — 152 points, favouring Italy
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia1–0–2Italy3 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Italy by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | Italy 20–17 Georgia | — | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| 2022-07-10 | Georgia 28–19 Italy | — | Adjarabet Arena |
| 2018-11-10 | Italy 28–17 Georgia | — | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.