Georgia vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 59.1%draw 2.9%38.0% ItalyItaly 61.1%draw 2.9%36.0% GeorgiaGeorgia 48.0%draw 2.9%49.1% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Italy and 21 Georgia, half of them between 6 Italy and 11 Georgia, with the middle run at 2 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Italy.
Georgia 1899, Italy 1827 — 72 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia1–0–5Italy6 meetings, 1998 to 2024 · Italy by 12.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | Italy 20–17 Georgia | — | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| 2022-07-10 | Georgia 28–19 Italy | — | Adjarabet Arena |
| 2018-11-10 | Italy 28–17 Georgia | — | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2003-09-06 | Italy 31–22 Georgia | — | Stadio Comunale Censin Bosia |
| 2000-01-26 | Italy 51–7 Georgia | — | — |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.