Georgia vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 4.4%94.6% New ZealandNew Zealand 91.9%7.1% GeorgiaGeorgia 5.7%93.3% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 51 New Zealand and 2 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-22 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours New Zealand.
Georgia 1215, New Zealand 2045 — 830 points, favouring New Zealand
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia0–0–1New Zealand1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · New Zealand by 33.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-02 | New Zealand 43–10 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.