Georgia vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 7.6%91.4% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.5%3.5% GeorgiaGeorgia 5.3%93.7% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 47 New Zealand and 1 New Zealand, half of them between 32 New Zealand and 6 New Zealand, with the middle run at 16 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-14 on a tight afternoon and 42-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Georgia 1899, New Zealand 2476 — 578 points, favouring New Zealand
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia0–0–1New Zealand1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · New Zealand by 33.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-02 | New Zealand 43–10 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.