Georgia vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 88.2%draw 1.2%10.6% SamoaSamoa 24.9%draw 1.2%73.9% GeorgiaGeorgia 81.3%draw 1.2%17.5% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Samoa and 40 Georgia, half of them between 4 Georgia and 26 Georgia, with the middle run at 13 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Georgia 1899, Samoa 1512 — 387 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia4–1–2Samoa7 meetings, 2003 to 2026 · Samoa by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Samoa 12–33 Georgia | — | Estadio Sausalito(neutral) |
| 2022-11-12 | Georgia 19–20 Samoa | — | Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena |
| 2018-11-17 | Georgia 27–19 Samoa | — | Avchala Stadium |
| 2016-11-19 | Georgia 20–16 Samoa | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2016-06-11 | Samoa 19–19 Georgia | — | Apia Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.