Georgia vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 67.6%draw 2.9%29.5% SamoaSamoa 50.0%draw 2.9%47.1% GeorgiaGeorgia 57.4%draw 2.9%39.7% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Samoa and 27 Georgia, with the middle run at 5 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Samoa.
Georgia 1215, Samoa 1150 — 65 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia2–1–2Samoa5 meetings, 2003 to 2022 · Samoa by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-12 | Georgia 19–20 Samoa | — | Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena |
| 2018-11-17 | Georgia 27–19 Samoa | — | Avchala Stadium |
| 2016-11-19 | Georgia 20–16 Samoa | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2016-06-11 | Samoa 19–19 Georgia | — | Apia Park |
| 2003-10-19 | Samoa 46–9 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Patersons Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.