Georgia vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 89.2%draw 1.4%9.4% USAUSA 26.3%draw 1.4%72.3% GeorgiaGeorgia 81.0%draw 1.4%17.6% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 44 Georgia, half of them between 4 Georgia and 29 Georgia, with the middle run at 14 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps USA.
Georgia 1899, USA 1537 — 361 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia5–0–3USA8 meetings, 2009 to 2025 · USA by 0.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Georgia 43–30 USA | — | Adjarabet Arena |
| 2023-08-19 | Georgia 22–7 USA | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2017-11-25 | Georgia 21–20 USA | — | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
| 2017-06-17 | USA 17–21 Georgia | — | Fifth Third Bank Stadium |
| 2013-11-16 | Georgia 23–25 USA | — | Akhali Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.