Georgia vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Georgia 34.1%draw 2.3%63.6% WalesWales 82.2%draw 2.3%15.5% GeorgiaGeorgia 24.0%draw 2.3%73.7% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 32 Wales and 14 Georgia, with the middle run at 5 Wales.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Georgia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Georgia, negative favours Wales.
Georgia 1215, Wales 1425 — 210 points, favouring Wales
Georgia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia1–0–3Wales4 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Wales by 14.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-07 | Wales 43–19 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2022-11-19 | Wales 12–13 Georgia | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2019-09-23 | Wales 43–14 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Wales 13–6 Georgia | — | Principality Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.