Georgia vs Wales
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 55.3%draw 3.0%41.7% WalesWales 65.1%draw 3.0%31.9% GeorgiaGeorgia 43.8%draw 3.0%53.2% WalesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Wales, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Wales and 20 Georgia, half of them between 6 Wales and 10 Georgia, with the middle run at 1 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Georgia 1899, Wales 1868 — 31 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia1–0–4Wales5 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Wales by 15.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-07 | Wales 43–19 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2022-11-19 | Wales 12–13 Georgia | — | Principality Stadium |
| 2020-11-21 | Wales 18–0 Georgia | — | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-09-23 | Wales 43–14 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Wales 13–6 Georgia | — | Principality Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.