Glasgow Warriors vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 90.2%draw 2.5%7.3% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 20.7%draw 2.5%76.8% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 14 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-25 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 617 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–0Newcastle Falcons1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · Glasgow Warriors by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-15 | Newcastle Falcons 17–27 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.