Glasgow Warriors vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 91.0%draw 2.5%6.5% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 15.1%draw 2.5%82.4% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 87.0%draw 2.5%10.5% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 5 Glasgow Warriors and 27 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 14 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 909 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–0Newcastle Falcons1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · Glasgow Warriors by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-15 | Newcastle Falcons 17–27 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.