Glasgow Warriors vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% OspreysOspreys 40.8%draw 2.5%56.7% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 71.1%draw 2.5%26.4% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ospreys and 34 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 3 Glasgow Warriors and 22 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 11 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-13 on a tight afternoon and 34-23 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Ospreys 1567 — 382 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors10–1–6Ospreys17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 5.1 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Glasgow Warriors by 8.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Ospreys 17–42 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-03-01 | Glasgow Warriors 31–32 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-11-11 | Ospreys 23–31 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-10-01 | Ospreys 32–17 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-01-08 | Glasgow Warriors 38–19 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.