Glasgow Warriors vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 75.0%draw 2.5%22.5% OspreysOspreys 39.4%draw 2.5%58.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 67.7%draw 2.5%29.8% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Ospreys and 32 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 9 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Ospreys.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Ospreys 1470 — 322 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors10–0–6Ospreys16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 5.4 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Glasgow Warriors by 8.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Ospreys 17–42 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-03-01 | Glasgow Warriors 31–32 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-11-11 | Ospreys 23–31 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-10-01 | Ospreys 32–17 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2022-01-08 | Glasgow Warriors 38–19 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.