Glasgow Warriors vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 65.7%draw 2.5%31.8% UlsterUlster 49.2%draw 2.5%48.3% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Ulster and 29 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 5 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Ulster.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Ulster 1633 — 158 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors8–0–8Ulster16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Ulster 20–19 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-11-25 | Glasgow Warriors 33–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-02-17 | Glasgow Warriors 17–11 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2021-09-24 | Ulster 35–29 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.