Glasgow Warriors vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 81.9%draw 2.5%15.6% UlsterUlster 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ulster and 33 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 2 Glasgow Warriors and 21 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 10 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 34-24 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Ulster 1582 — 367 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors8–1–8Ulster17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Glasgow Warriors by 3.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Glasgow Warriors 33–33 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2026-05-15 | Ulster 22–26 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Ulster 20–19 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-11-25 | Glasgow Warriors 33–20 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-02-17 | Glasgow Warriors 17–11 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.