Gloucester Rugby vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 86.3%draw 2.5%11.2% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 24.6%draw 2.5%72.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 80.2%draw 2.5%17.3% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 40 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 4 Gloucester Rugby and 26 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 13 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 644 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby15–0–7Newcastle Falcons22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Gloucester Rugby by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Gloucester Rugby by 12.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Gloucester Rugby 54–21 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2026-01-02 | Newcastle Falcons 25–19 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-05-16 | Newcastle Falcons 12–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-10-26 | Gloucester Rugby 36–7 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-05-18 | Gloucester Rugby 54–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.