Gloucester Rugby vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 35.9%draw 2.5%61.6% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 69.0%draw 2.5%28.5% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Newcastle Falcons and 34 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 346 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby15–0–7Newcastle Falcons22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Gloucester Rugby by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Gloucester Rugby by 12.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Gloucester Rugby 54–21 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2026-01-02 | Newcastle Falcons 25–19 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-05-16 | Newcastle Falcons 12–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-10-26 | Gloucester Rugby 36–7 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-05-18 | Gloucester Rugby 54–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.