Gloucester Rugby vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 74.7%draw 2.5%22.8% OspreysOspreys 48.6%draw 2.5%48.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Ospreys and 34 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between level and 20 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Ospreys 1567 — 117 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby1–0–0Ospreys1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Gloucester Rugby by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | Gloucester Rugby 23–13 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.