Gloucester Rugby vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 71.4%draw 2.5%26.1% OspreysOspreys 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 58.3%draw 2.5%39.2% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Ospreys and 32 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 8 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Ospreys.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Ospreys 1470 — 50 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby1–0–0Ospreys1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Gloucester Rugby by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | Gloucester Rugby 23–13 Ospreys | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.