Gloucester Rugby vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% UlsterUlster 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 58.0%draw 2.5%39.5% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Ulster and 30 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 2 Ulster and 17 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 6 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Ulster 1582 — 102 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby1–0–0Ulster1 meeting, 2020 to 2020 · Gloucester Rugby by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-19 | Gloucester Rugby 38–34 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.