Harlequins vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 85.5%draw 2.5%12.0% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 32.9%draw 2.5%64.6% HarlequinsHarlequins 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 36 Harlequins, half of them between 3 Harlequins and 23 Harlequins, with the middle run at 12 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Harlequins 1542, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 502 points, favouring Harlequins
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins15–0–6Newcastle Falcons21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Harlequins by 14.7 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Harlequins by 24.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Newcastle Falcons 17–76 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-10-25 | Harlequins 52–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-01-03 | Newcastle Falcons 14–38 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Harlequins 28–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-01-05 | Newcastle Falcons 3–24 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.