Harlequins vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 82.0%draw 2.5%15.5% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 25.1%draw 2.5%72.4% HarlequinsHarlequins 77.5%draw 2.5%20.0% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 37 Harlequins, with the middle run at 12 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Harlequins 1668, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 493 points, favouring Harlequins
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins15–0–5Newcastle Falcons20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Harlequins by 15.8 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Harlequins by 24.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Newcastle Falcons 17–76 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2025-10-25 | Harlequins 52–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-01-03 | Newcastle Falcons 14–38 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Harlequins 28–14 Newcastle Falcons | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-01-05 | Newcastle Falcons 3–24 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingston Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.