Harlequins vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 57.3%draw 2.5%40.2% UlsterUlster 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% HarlequinsHarlequins 43.6%draw 2.5%53.9% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Ulster and 21 Harlequins, half of them between 6 Ulster and 10 Harlequins, with the middle run at 2 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Harlequins 1542, Ulster 1582 — 40 points, favouring Ulster
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins1–0–5Ulster6 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Ulster by 12.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-20 | Harlequins 47–19 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2021-04-04 | Harlequins 21–57 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2019-12-13 | Harlequins 10–34 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2019-12-07 | Ulster 25–24 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2017-12-15 | Ulster 52–24 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.