Hong Kong China vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 32.3%draw 2.3%65.4% SamoaSamoa 84.3%draw 2.3%13.4% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 22.0%draw 2.3%75.7% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Samoa and 12 Hong Kong China, half of them between 21 Samoa and 3 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 6 Samoa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Hong Kong China 1297, Samoa 1512 — 215 points, favouring Samoa
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China0–0–1Samoa1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Samoa by 47.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Samoa 66–19 Hong Kong China | — | Estadio Nacional(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.