Hong Kong China vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 30.6%draw 2.1%67.3% USAUSA 85.9%draw 2.1%12.0% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 20.8%draw 2.1%77.1% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 USA and 14 Hong Kong China, half of them between 12 USA and 2 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 4 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps USA.
Hong Kong China 1297, USA 1537 — 240 points, favouring USA
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China4–0–4USA8 meetings, 1992 to 2022 · USA by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-12 | USA 49–7 Hong Kong China | — | The Sevens |
| 1998-06-20 | USA 17–27 Hong Kong China | — | Matthew J. Boxer Stadium, Balboa Park |
| 1998-05-16 | Hong Kong China 43–25 USA | — | — |
| 1997-06-14 | USA 17–14 Hong Kong China | — | Matthew J. Boxer Stadium, Balboa Park |
| 1997-05-18 | Hong Kong China 46–9 USA | — | — |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.