Hong Kong China vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Hong Kong China 46.5%draw 2.6%50.9% USAUSA 72.6%draw 2.6%24.8% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 34.3%draw 2.6%63.1% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 32 USA and 13 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 1 USA.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Hong Kong China, negative favours USA.
Hong Kong China 937, USA 1088 — 151 points, favouring USA
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China0–0–1USA1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · USA by 42.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-12 | USA 49–7 Hong Kong China | — | The Sevens |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.