Hong Kong China vs Zimbabwe
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 62.3%draw 3.0%34.7% ZimbabweZimbabwe 57.0%draw 3.0%40.0% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 51.1%draw 3.0%45.9% ZimbabweEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v Zimbabwe, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Zimbabwe and 35 Hong Kong China, half of them between 3 Zimbabwe and 21 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 6 Hong Kong China.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps Zimbabwe.
Hong Kong China 1297, Zimbabwe 1293 — 4 points, favouring Hong Kong China
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China3–0–0Zimbabwe3 meetings, 2012 to 2016 · Hong Kong China by 19.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-15 | Hong Kong China 34–11 Zimbabwe | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
| 2015-11-13 | Hong Kong China 30–11 Zimbabwe | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
| 2012-12-08 | Hong Kong China 22–7 Zimbabwe | — | The Sevens Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.