Ireland vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 94.5%4.5% NamibiaNamibia 8.4%90.6% IrelandIreland 92.6%6.4% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Namibia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ireland and 57 Ireland, half of them between 8 Ireland and 40 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 41 and 95 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 50-29 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Namibia.
Ireland 2351, Namibia 1240 — 1111 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland2–0–2Namibia4 meetings, 1991 to 2007 · Ireland by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-09-09 | Ireland 32–17 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas(neutral) |
| 2003-10-19 | Ireland 64–7 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
| 1991-07-27 | Namibia 26–15 Ireland | — | National Stadium |
| 1991-07-20 | Namibia 15–6 Ireland | — | National Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.