Ireland vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 97.0%2.0% RomaniaRomania 3.5%95.5% IrelandIreland 96.2%2.8% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ireland and 52 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours Romania.
Ireland 1884, Romania 788 — 1097 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland4–0–0Romania4 meetings, 1999 to 2023 · Ireland by 41.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-09 | Ireland 82–8 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2015-09-27 | Ireland 44–10 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Wembley Stadium(neutral) |
| 2003-10-11 | Ireland 45–17 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Central Coast Stadium(neutral) |
| 1999-10-15 | Ireland 44–14 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Aviva Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.