Ireland vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 97.6%1.4% RomaniaRomania 4.0%95.0% IrelandIreland 96.4%2.6% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ireland and 56 Ireland, half of them between 8 Ireland and 39 Ireland, with the middle run at 20 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 41 and 94 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-16 on a tight afternoon and 50-30 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Ireland 2351, Romania 1265 — 1086 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland10–1–0Romania11 meetings, 1980 to 2023 · Ireland by 32.9 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Ireland by 36.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-09 | Ireland 82–8 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2015-09-27 | Ireland 44–10 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Wembley Stadium(neutral) |
| 2005-11-26 | Ireland 43–12 Romania | — | Lansdowne Road |
| 2003-10-11 | Ireland 45–17 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Central Coast Stadium(neutral) |
| 2002-09-07 | Ireland 39–8 Romania | — | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.