Ireland vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 97.2%1.8% RussiaRussia 3.6%95.4% IrelandIreland 96.3%2.7% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ireland and 56 Ireland, with the middle run at 22 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 39 and 88 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-13 on a tight afternoon and 48-26 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours Russia.
Ireland 1884, Russia 425 — 1459 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland2–0–0Russia2 meetings, 2011 to 2019 · Ireland by 42.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-03 | Ireland 35–0 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2011-09-25 | Ireland 62–12 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Rotorua International Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.