Ireland vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 97.0%2.0% RussiaRussia 3.3%95.7% IrelandIreland 96.4%2.6% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ireland and 58 Ireland, half of them between 9 Ireland and 41 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 43 and 96 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 37-16 on a tight afternoon and 51-30 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Ireland 2351, Russia 1137 — 1214 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland3–0–0Russia3 meetings, 2002 to 2019 · Ireland by 39.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-03 | Ireland 35–0 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2011-09-25 | Ireland 62–12 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Rotorua International Stadium(neutral) |
| 2002-09-21 | Russia 3–35 Ireland | — | Central Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.