Ireland vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 74.9%draw 2.6%22.5% ScotlandScotland 41.1%draw 2.6%56.3% IrelandIreland 65.8%draw 2.6%31.6% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Scotland and 30 Ireland, half of them between 1 Ireland and 17 Ireland, with the middle run at 7 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Ireland 2351, Scotland 2193 — 158 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland73–5–66Scotland144 meetings, 1877 to 2026 · Ireland by 1.7 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Ireland by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Ireland 43–21 Scotland | Six Nations Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-02-09 | Scotland 18–32 Ireland | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-03-16 | Ireland 17–13 Scotland | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-10-07 | Ireland 36–14 Scotland | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2023-03-12 | Scotland 7–22 Ireland | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 144. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.