Ireland vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 77.9%draw 2.6%19.5% ScotlandScotland 47.9%draw 2.6%49.5% IrelandIreland 60.7%draw 2.6%36.7% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Scotland and 29 Ireland, with the middle run at 8 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours Scotland.
Ireland 1884, Scotland 1730 — 155 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland73–5–66Scotland144 meetings, 1877 to 2026 · Ireland by 1.7 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Ireland by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Ireland 43–21 Scotland | Six Nations Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-02-09 | Scotland 18–32 Ireland | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-03-16 | Ireland 17–13 Scotland | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-10-07 | Ireland 36–14 Scotland | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2023-03-12 | Scotland 7–22 Ireland | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 144. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.