Ireland vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Ireland 48.3%draw 2.6%49.1% South AfricaSouth Africa 66.3%draw 2.6%31.1% IrelandIreland 40.0%draw 2.6%57.4% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 South Africa and 16 Ireland, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Ireland are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Ireland, negative favours South Africa.
Ireland 1884, South Africa 2036 — 152 points, favouring South Africa
Ireland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland10–1–20South Africa31 meetings, 1906 to 2025 · South Africa by 4.4 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Ireland by 3.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Ireland 13–24 South Africa | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | South Africa 24–25 Ireland | — | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-07-06 | South Africa 27–20 Ireland | — | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-09-23 | South Africa 8–13 Ireland | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2022-11-05 | Ireland 19–16 South Africa | — | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 31. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.