Ireland vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 43.6%draw 2.6%53.8% South AfricaSouth Africa 80.0%draw 2.6%17.4% IrelandIreland 30.3%draw 2.6%67.1% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 28 South Africa and 15 Ireland, half of them between 14 South Africa and 6 Ireland, with the middle run at 1 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Ireland are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Ireland 2351, South Africa 2512 — 161 points, favouring South Africa
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland10–1–20South Africa31 meetings, 1906 to 2025 · South Africa by 4.4 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Ireland by 3.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Ireland 13–24 South Africa | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-07-13 | South Africa 24–25 Ireland | — | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-07-06 | South Africa 27–20 Ireland | — | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-09-23 | South Africa 8–13 Ireland | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2022-11-05 | Ireland 19–16 South Africa | — | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 31. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.