Ireland vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Ireland 97.4%1.6% TongaTonga 4.4%94.6% IrelandIreland 96.1%2.9% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ireland v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ireland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Ireland and 54 Ireland, half of them between 9 Ireland and 38 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 38 and 88 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why Ireland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ireland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ireland, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Ireland 2351, Tonga 1454 — 897 points, favouring Ireland
Ireland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Ireland3–0–0Tonga3 meetings, 1987 to 2023 · Ireland by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-16 | Ireland 59–16 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2003-06-14 | Tonga 19–40 Ireland | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 1987-06-03 | Ireland 32–9 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Ballymore(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.