Italy vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 61.1%draw 3.0%35.9% JapanJapan 54.4%draw 3.0%42.6% ItalyItaly 54.3%draw 3.0%42.7% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Japan and 25 Italy, half of them between 5 Japan and 12 Italy, with the middle run at 3 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Italy 1827, Japan 1846 — 19 points, favouring Japan
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy8–0–3Japan11 meetings, 1976 to 2026 · Italy by 11.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Italy by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Japan 27–10 Italy | Nations Championship | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2024-07-21 | Japan 14–42 Italy | — | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2023-08-26 | Italy 42–21 Japan | — | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2018-06-16 | Japan 22–25 Italy | — | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2018-06-09 | Japan 34–17 Italy | — | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.