Italy vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 59.1%draw 2.9%38.0% JapanJapan 57.6%draw 3.0%39.4% ItalyItaly 46.5%draw 2.9%50.6% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Japan and 25 Italy, with the middle run at 3 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours Japan.
Italy 1367, Japan 1310 — 57 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy3–0–2Japan5 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Italy by 3.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Japan 27–10 Italy | Nations Championship | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2024-07-21 | Japan 14–42 Italy | — | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2023-08-26 | Italy 42–21 Japan | — | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2018-06-16 | Japan 22–25 Italy | — | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2018-06-09 | Japan 34–17 Italy | — | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.