Italy vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 95.5%3.5% NamibiaNamibia 9.5%89.5% ItalyItaly 92.7%6.3% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Namibia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Italy and 53 Italy, half of them between 8 Italy and 38 Italy, with the middle run at 21 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Namibia.
Italy 1827, Namibia 1240 — 587 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy4–0–2Namibia6 meetings, 1991 to 2025 · Italy by 22.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-27 | Namibia 6–73 Italy | — | Hage Geingob Stadium |
| 2023-09-09 | Italy 52–8 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2019-09-22 | Italy 47–22 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2001-06-23 | Namibia 24–49 Italy | — | National Stadium |
| 1991-06-22 | Namibia 33–19 Italy | — | National Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.