Italy vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 84.2%draw 2.4%13.4% PortugalPortugal 34.1%draw 2.4%63.5% ItalyItaly 74.8%draw 2.4%22.8% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Portugal and 40 Italy, half of them between 2 Italy and 26 Italy, with the middle run at 12 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-13 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Italy 1827, Portugal 1638 — 189 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy11–0–1Portugal12 meetings, 1967 to 2022 · Italy by 22.4 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Italy by 25.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-25 | Portugal 31–38 Italy | — | Estádio do Restelo |
| 2007-09-19 | Italy 31–5 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Parc des Princes(neutral) |
| 2006-10-07 | Italy 83–0 Portugal | — | Stadio Tommaso Fattori |
| 1996-03-02 | Portugal 3–64 Italy | — | Estadio Universitario |
| 1993-04-17 | Portugal 11–33 Italy | — | Estádio Universitário |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.