Italy vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 93.3%5.7% RomaniaRomania 13.7%85.3% ItalyItaly 89.3%9.7% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Italy and 51 Italy, with the middle run at 21 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours Romania.
Italy 1367, Romania 788 — 579 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy4–0–0Romania4 meetings, 2007 to 2023 · Italy by 24.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-19 | Italy 57–7 Romania | — | Stadio Riviera delle Palme |
| 2022-07-01 | Romania 13–45 Italy | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2015-10-11 | Romania 22–32 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Sandy Park(neutral) |
| 2007-09-12 | Romania 18–24 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.