Italy vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 91.9%7.1% RomaniaRomania 15.6%83.4% ItalyItaly 87.8%11.2% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Italy and 45 Italy, half of them between 5 Italy and 30 Italy, with the middle run at 16 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-14 on a tight afternoon and 42-26 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Italy 1827, Romania 1265 — 562 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy25–2–16Romania43 meetings, 1934 to 2023 · Italy by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Italy by 20.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-19 | Italy 57–7 Romania | — | Stadio Riviera delle Palme |
| 2022-07-01 | Romania 13–45 Italy | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2015-10-11 | Romania 22–32 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Sandy Park(neutral) |
| 2007-09-12 | Romania 18–24 Italy | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
| 2004-06-26 | Romania 25–24 Italy | — | Stadionul Lia Manoliu |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 43. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.