Italy vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 96.9%2.1% RussiaRussia 6.5%92.5% ItalyItaly 94.8%4.2% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Italy and 52 Italy, half of them between 8 Italy and 38 Italy, with the middle run at 20 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-13 on a tight afternoon and 45-25 on an open one.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Italy 1827, Russia 1137 — 690 points, favouring Italy
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy5–0–0Russia5 meetings, 1993 to 2019 · Italy by 41.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-08-17 | Italy 85–15 Russia | — | Stadio Riviera delle Palme |
| 2011-09-20 | Italy 53–17 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Trafalgar Park(neutral) |
| 2006-10-14 | Russia 7–67 Italy | — | Slava Stadium |
| 1998-04-18 | Russia 18–48 Italy | — | Central Stadium |
| 1993-11-06 | Russia 19–30 Italy | — | Fili Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.