Italy vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 18.9%draw 1.4%79.7% ScotlandScotland 80.9%draw 1.4%17.7% ItalyItaly 18.2%draw 1.4%80.4% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 34 Scotland and 11 Italy, with the middle run at 9 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Italy are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours Scotland.
Italy 1367, Scotland 1730 — 363 points, favouring Scotland
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy10–0–29Scotland39 meetings, 1996 to 2026 · Scotland by 8.9 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Scotland by 12.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Italy 18–15 Scotland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2025-02-01 | Scotland 31–19 Italy | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-03-09 | Italy 31–29 Scotland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2023-07-29 | Scotland 25–13 Italy | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2023-03-18 | Scotland 26–14 Italy | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 39. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.