Italy vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy 19.9%draw 1.3%78.8% ScotlandScotland 90.1%draw 1.3%8.6% ItalyItaly 14.0%draw 1.3%84.7% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Italy v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 35 Scotland and 11 Italy, half of them between 22 Scotland and 1 Scotland, with the middle run at 9 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Italy are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Italy 1827, Scotland 2193 — 366 points, favouring Scotland
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy10–0–29Scotland39 meetings, 1996 to 2026 · Scotland by 8.9 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Scotland by 12.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Italy 18–15 Scotland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2025-02-01 | Scotland 31–19 Italy | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-03-09 | Italy 31–29 Scotland | — | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2023-07-29 | Scotland 25–13 Italy | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2023-03-18 | Scotland 26–14 Italy | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 39. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.