Italy vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Italy host South Africa on Saturday 7 November at Allianz Stadium, so Italy are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Italy 5.4%93.6% South AfricaSouth Africa 96.3%2.7% ItalyItaly 3.9%95.1% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 50 South Africa and 1 South Africa, half of them between 36 South Africa and 7 South Africa, with the middle run at 19 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-14 on a tight afternoon and 45-26 on an open one.
Why Italy are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Italy 1827, South Africa 2512 — 685 points, favouring South Africa
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy1–0–18South Africa19 meetings, 1995 to 2025 · South Africa by 34.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · South Africa by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Italy 14–32 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-07-12 | South Africa 45–0 Italy | — | Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium |
| 2025-07-05 | South Africa 42–24 Italy | — | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-11-19 | Italy 21–63 South Africa | — | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| 2019-10-04 | South Africa 49–3 Italy | — | Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.