Italy vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Italy 5.3%93.7% South AfricaSouth Africa 94.9%4.1% ItalyItaly 4.7%94.3% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Italy wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 46 South Africa and 1 South Africa, with the middle run at 18 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-12 on a tight afternoon and 41-23 on an open one.
Why Italy are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Italy, negative favours South Africa.
Italy 1367, South Africa 2036 — 669 points, favouring South Africa
Italy are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Italy1–0–18South Africa19 meetings, 1995 to 2025 · South Africa by 34.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · South Africa by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Italy 14–32 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-07-12 | South Africa 45–0 Italy | — | Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium |
| 2025-07-05 | South Africa 42–24 Italy | — | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-11-19 | Italy 21–63 South Africa | — | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| 2019-10-04 | South Africa 49–3 Italy | — | Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.